Nervous: Michigan Senate Update

It's finally 2018, the year of midterms. It's impossible to imagine what elections are going to be like in 2026. It's incredibly fast-paced and campaigning is starting to begin so early. In 2017, we already knew plenty of the candidates already, meaning it's become an arms race to see who can prep up for an election quicker. This prep literally comes down to exclusively fundraising, which makes it difficult for all candidates and their staff. Everyone is pushing harder I imagine. But at the end, it can all be for nought. Only one person wins the election.

Just a month or two ago, Democrats leads the Generic Congressional Ballot by 11 points or so. Now, that lead is under six points. While this is a US Congress ballot, it still shows some of the political cultures in the US, and even Michigan. While it's hard to completely assign this ballot to an individual state, it can mean that Democrats are in a better position for midterms. We're already seeing the momentum in Michigan.

For example, there is a whole slew of rumored and filed female candidates all around the state. At least for the Michigan Senate, there are multiple women running in many different regions. For example, Representative Winnie Brinks is vying for a spot in the Senate. My personal favorite candidate to follow at the moment is Cynthia Luczak. She's a moderate candidate from mid-Michigan vying for the open seat in Senate District 31, which includes Bay, Lapeer and Tuscola Counties. Bay County generally leans Democratic, but the other two counties lean Republican. This is what makes it a difficult district to win for Democrats.

We'll have to see how the new candidates duke it out. Luczak needs a huge Democratic wave to really pick apart that district. Though one of her candidates is from her area of the state, it will still be hard to combat is intensely conservative views. Especially if there are some hardcore President Donald Trump voters in the other counties.

It's going to be interesting to see how all of this plays out. There's no guarantee that any of the districts that lean right will stay that way. It seems that districts are in some weird pattern where they could change back and fourth at any point in time. So we'll see how this goes. We'll keep you updated with how the race goes obviously!

The Michigan Senate Midterms

Midterm years are crazy years in Michigan political races. This is when governor races happen along with the state Senate races. These races bring a very heated political environment and play on top of each other. But this year is going to be something special. The national political environment is a mess, which leaves an open spot for Democrats all through the county. It's going to be really interesting to see what happens especially in Michigan which is a state that went for President Barack Obama then President Donald Trump. Despite the heavy gerrymandering, this could be the Democrats best chance at picking up some big seats in the Michigan Senate.

For those unaware, the Michigan Senate vote was nearly split 50-50 in 2014 between Democrats and Republicans. Instead of nearly-equal representation for both parties, Republicans won 27 seats and Democrats won 11. Republicans managed to pull off this feat many different ways. Gerrymandering-wise, Republicans have packed much of the Democrats in metro Detroit into Democratic districts with little competition. On top of that, they have cracked may of the other Democratic areas around the state, which is no more true than Bay County.

Bay County is in Michigan Senate district 31. It's a relatively blue part of the state. They don't have the same lean as Detroit and Ann Arbor, but Democrats have a good chance to win there. To make sure Bay County Democrats can't hold a seat in the Senate, Senate district 31 also holds Lapeer and Tuscola Counties, both of which are quite conservative. Bay County is much larger than either of the other two counties, but together, Lapeer and Tuscola Counties are just big enough to take out the Democratic advantage in Bay County. This time around, Democratic candidates can run and win anywhere. Heck, Doug Jones just won Alabama.

That's why Cynthia Luczak (Facebook), the county clerk for Bay County is running in her district to take over for the term-limited Senator Mike Green. Her opponents are current-Rep Gary Glenn and former Rep Kevin Daley. Both are weak candidates and Luzcak is a popular public figure in the county, which means she has every chance of picking off a win in a a district she has no business winning.

Unfortunately, elections aren't won by bloggers online, but she has every chance of puling a win in the district, but only time will tell if Luczak is the candidate Bay County Democrats can rally behind.

Michigan Senate Races

The Michigan Senate is a conglomerate that has been Republican for what seems like forever. I'm 30 and in my life, I don't think it's ever been led by Democrats. Some could make the argument that it's gerrymandered. The Republicans have only won one Presidential election in Michigan since George H.W. Bush. And it was President Donald Trump. So the discrepancies in the Senate chamber are always wider than they probably should be. Alas, 2018 is a new year and a new chance for many aspiring Senators to take a shot for a Senate seat.

Due to Michigan's new term limit laws, Michigan's legislature has a lot of turnover in legislators. While this was a Constitutional decision, the ramifications are vast. Now elections have turned into hot beds every four years when a seat is up and there's very few incumbents anymore. This shows more than in the Michigan Senate where lawmakers have been bought out by big-money contributors such as gun lobbies and Betsy DeVos. The Michigan Senate has been pushing through particularly aggressive legislation such as allowing and expanding CPLs in schools. They've also voted to eliminate pensions among public servants.

The 2018 elections are going to be nearly as heated as the Presidential election. There's US House and Senate seats open, but there's also many state House and Senate seats open. For example, Michigan is going to be going through a rough election cycle. This might not be more likely than in Michigan's 31st Senate district.

Currently, there is a race between the Democrat Cynthia Luczak (Here's how you can join Cynthia Luczak's team), the Bay County Clerk and the Republicans Kevin Daley and Gary Glenn. Gary Glenn is a rather crazy Representative at the current moment. He's publicly homophobic and has taken many questionable vote. Kevin Daley isn't even the biggest person with his name. That goest to the Harlem Globetrotters star.

It will be interesting to see what plays out on the Republican side, but both candidates from Michigan's 31st Senate district are pretty weak. Glenn is a fiery little dude with a passion for hating gay people. Daley is a failed Senator. He lost his last bid for Michigan Senate to the current Senator Mike Green.

We'll see how the races go in the future, but what makes the district unique is that it's all across the political spectrum. if you look at a map, it looks like bay County is on the left geographically, but it's also on the left politically. Lapeer County is the most geographically east/right and is the most political to the right. It makes it a tough district for any of the candidates to win.